Növelhető-e a csőd-előrejelző modellek előre jelző képessége az új klasszifikációs módszerek nélkül? (Can the predictive capacity of bankruptcy forecasting models be increased without new classification methods?)

A Bázel–2. tőkeegyezmény bevezetését követően a bankok és hitelintézetek Magyarországon is megkezdték saját belső minősítő rendszereik felépítését, melyek karbantartása és fejlesztése folyamatos feladat. A szerző arra a kérdésre keres választ, hogy lehetséges-e a csőd-előrejelző modellek előre jelző képességét növelni a hagyományos matematikai-statisztikai módszerek alkalmazásával oly módon, hogy a modellekbe a pénzügyi mutatószámok időbeli változásának mértékét is beépítjük. Az empirikus kutatási eredmények arra engednek következtetni, hogy a hazai vállalkozások pénzügyi mutatószámainak időbeli alakulása fontos információt hordoz a vállalkozás jövőbeli fizetőképességéről, mivel azok felhasználása jelentősen növeli a csődmodellek előre jelző képességét. A szerző azt is megvizsgálja, hogy javítja-e a megfigyelések szélsőségesen magas vagy alacsony értékeinek modellezés előtti korrekciója a modellek klasszifikációs teljesítményét. ______ Banks and lenders in Hungary also began, after the introduction of the Basel 2 capital agreement, to build up their internal rating systems, whose maintenance and development are a continuing task. The author explores whether it is possible to increase the predictive capacity of business-failure forecasting models by traditional mathematical-cum-statistical means in such a way that they incorporate the measure of change in the financial indicators over time. Empirical findings suggest that the temporal development of the financial indicators of firms in Hungary carries important information about future ability to pay, since the predictive capacity of bankruptcy forecasting models is greatly increased by using such indicators. The author also examines whether the classification performance of the models can be improved by correcting for extremely high or low values before modelling.

Going beyond the rhetoric: system-wide changes in universities for sustainable societies

In October 2008, the 5th Environmental Management for Sustainable Universities (EMSU) international conference was held in Barcelona, Spain. It dealt with the need to rethink how our higher educational institutions are facing sustainability. This special issue has been primarily derived from contributions to that conference. This issue builds upon related academic international publications, which have analysed how to use the critical position of universities to accelerate their pace of working to help to make the transition to truly SUSTAINABLE SOCIETIES! This issue focus is on the ‘softer’ issues, such as changes in values, attitudes, motivations, as well as in curricula, societal interactions and assessments of the impacts of research. Insights derived from the interplay of the ‘softer’ issues with the ‘harder’ issues are empowering academic leaders to effectively use leverage points to make changes in operations, courses, curricula, and research. Those changes are being designed to help their students and faculty build resilient and sustainable societies within the context of climate change, the Decade of Education for Sustainable Development (DESD), and the UN Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The overall systems approach presented by Stephens and Graham provides a structured framework to systematize change for sustainability in higher education, by stressing on the one hand the need for “learning to learn” and on the other hand by integrating leadership and cultural aspects. The “niche” level they propose for innovative interactions between practitioners such as EMSU is exemplary developed by all of the other documents in this special issue. To highlight some of the key elements of the articles in this issue, there are proposals for new educational methods based in sustainability science, a set of inspirational criteria for SD research activities, new course ranking and assessment methods and results of psychological studies that provide evidence that participatory approaches are the most effective way to change values within university members in order to facilitate the development and sharing of new sustainability norms.